2. Bundesliga Permutations – Who’s going up? Who’s going down?

Updated 27th June 2020

The 2. Bundesliga has entered the final stages of the seasons, and after three games in ten days, we have a clearer picture of how thing will end up at the end of the season.

These are all the permutations as things stand ahead of matchday 34. This article will be updated as applicable.

Promotion to the Bundesliga

The top two are promoted automatically to the Bundesliga. The third-placed side will face the 16th-place side from the Bundesliga in a two-legged play-off in early July.

  1. Arminia Bielefeld: 65 points, +32 goal difference, 33 played (CHAMPIONS)
  2. VfB Stuttgart: 58 points, +23 goal difference, 33 played
  3. 1. FC Heidenheim: 55 points, +12 goal difference, 33 played
  4. Hamburger SV: 54 points, +20 goal difference, 33 played

Key Fixtures at the Top – 28th June

Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim
Hamburger SV vs SV Sandhausen

Bielefeld’s win over Dynamo Dresden on Monday all but confirmed their promotion back to the Bundesliga and Hamburg’s draw with VfL Osnabrück on Tuesday has made it official. They became champions after their victory against Darmstadt on Thursday.

Embed from Getty Images

Stuttgart’s stunning victory over Nürnberg, combined with Heidenheim’s late winner against Hamburg, means Die Roten are all but promoted, baring an 11-goal swing on the final day.

Heidenheim go into their final game with Bielefeld in the play-off position, and a win will guarantee a tie against either Fortuna Düsseldorf or Werder Bremen.

If they draw, a win for Hamburg against Sandhausen would see them finish third, whilst a Heidenheim defeat would leave Hamburg needing just a draw due to their superior goal difference.

Fifth-placed Darmstadt’s defeat to Bielefeld on Thursday ended their faint hopes of a late surge into the promotion race.

Relegation to the 3. Liga

The top two are relegated automatically to the 3. Liga. The 16th-placed side will face the third-placed side from the 3. Liga (or the fourth-placed if Bayern II finish in the top three) in a two-legged play-off in July.

  1. VfL Osnabrück: 39 points, -2 goal difference, 33 played (SAFE)
  2. FC St. Pauli: 39 points, -7 goal difference, 33 played (SAFE)
  3. 1. FC Nürnberg: 36 points, -13 goal difference, 33 played
  4. Karlsruher SC: 34 points, -12 goal difference, 33 played
  5. SV Wehen Wiesbaden: 31 points, -22 goal difference, 33 played
  6. Dynamo Dresden: 31 points, -26 goal difference, 33 played

Key Fixtures at the Bottom – 28th June

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Karlsruher SC
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg

Dresden’s defeat to Holstein Kiel on Thursday evening had left them on the brink of relegation and this was pretty much confirmed, due to goal difference, despite the win against Sandhausen on Sunday.

Wiesbaden, level on points with Dresden, can also start preparing for life back in the 3. Liga after a loss against Darmstadt. Their only alternative would be a swing of ten with Karlsruhe on the final day.

Embed from Getty Images

Nürnberg’s massive win against Wiesbaden on Tuesday lifted them back out of the bottom three having dropped into it over the weekend, and they remain 15th despite the thrashing at the hands of Stuttgart.

A win against Kiel next Sunday guarantees survival but even a defeat would be fine as long as Karlsruhe don’t beat Fürth, which they must do to have any chance of staying up automatically. If Nürnberg drew, a win for Karlsruhe would be enough due to their better goal difference.

St. Pauli and Osnabrück confirmed their survival on the penultimate matchday, with everyone else already safe.

Who could replace them?

SC Paderborn 07‘s relegation from the Bundesliga was confirmed after their defeat to 1. FC Union Berlin. Fortuna Düsseldorf joined them on the final day after a 3-1 defeat to Union Berlin combined with SV Werder Bremen’s 6-1 win over 1. FC Köln. Bremen will face the side finishing third in the 2. Bundesliga.

The 3. Liga remains much more difficult to predict, with just seven points separating first and seven and the games coming thick and fast. Bayern Munich II, who can’t go up, are now leading the table with two games remaining. Würzburger Kickers are second.

As it stands, Eintracht Braunschweig, in 3rd, would go up automatically with Würzburg. MSV Duisburg, top for much of the campaign, are now only fourth but would be in the play-off. FC Ingolstadt 04 would overtake them if they win on Sunday. Hansa Rostock, 1860 Munich and Waldorf Mannheim are not completely out of the race either.

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